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Cleveland Plain Dealer - Published: Aug. 28, 2022
In this photo released by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, the United Kingdom's carrier strike group led by HMS Queen Elizabeth (R 08), and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces led by (JMSDF) Hyuga-class helicopter destroyer JS Ise (DDH 182) joined with U.S. Navy carrier strike groups led by flagships USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) to conduct multiple carrier strike group operations in the Philippine Sea, Oct. 3, 2021. A spate of Chinese military flights off Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own, and naval maneuvers by the United States and its allies to reinforce maritime routes challenged by China are fueling increasing tensions in a region already on edge. (Gray Gibson/U.S. Navy via AP)AP
NORTH ROYALTON, Ohio -- There is an intense contest brewing between liberal democratic nations and the illiberal, autocratic China. The future will be one of immense geopolitical conflict filled with increasingly complex alliance systems, front-end public diplomacy, and back-end technical arms races (conventional and cyber). Leaders will have to engage without miscalculation.
China seeks to achieve the same continental dominance in Asia that the early United States did in the Americas. To gain global pre-eminence, a state must first gain regional dominance; It cannot dictate world affairs if it has a dangerous neighbor in its periphery with the constant specter of conflict.
Since the Asian Indo-Pacific region hosts more than half of all international trade and production, China would only have to be the dominant actor in this region to achieve global pre-eminence. By achieving Asian dominance, China would only need to cut vital global supply chains to coerce other states into capitulation. As 2021-22 has highlighted, the world is hyper-connected, and even the smallest disruption in our global supply chains can cause enormous stress to national economies.
Furthermore, the Chinese Communist Party aims to eclipse the United States as the global power to transform the current international system and create one in its own image.
In the aftermath of World War II, the United States and its allies formed a liberal world order predicated on rule of law, liberal economic intercourse, democratic governance, and individual rights and freedoms. This is a world order that doesn’t align with the Chinese Communist Party’s governing ideology. The CCP aims to create a world order that emulates the current Chinese state (i.e., one of restricted markets, repression and supervision, and a state-centered economic model) to preserve the power, legitimacy, and the longevity of the CCP.
A liberal Chinese political system is what the Chinese Communist Party fears most, and the party has aggressively endeavored to maintain and promulgate its national power and influence, to prevent just that. In the past decade, the CCP has become more aggressive in their military presence in the Indo-Pacific by rapidly growing their national navy, investing in military capabilities (e.g., hypersonic ballistic missiles and a GPS alternative, BeiDou) and contesting disputed territories. Moreover, they are also diplomatically maneuvering in the region by both building alliances and attempting to torpedo outstanding U.S. bilateral partnerships/alliances. They are attempting this by offering neighboring nations attractive economic trade and investment partnerships.
This is the most challenging facet of this geopolitical contest between the United States and China. The Chinese hold closer proximity to the Indo-Pacific than its competitor, the United States, and it can observe and relate to vulnerable Indo-Pacific states more easily. China can more seamlessly provide services and investment — even in a hyper-connected world, it is still easier to trade with those closest and provide/receive vital investments.
That is alarming when considering the advantages regional proximity gives China in the global technology/cyber competition. China is in a position to gain a large footprint in the tech economies of the region’s states. From this growing footprint, the Chinese can ascertain and influence any cyber/tech advances of regional states, like 5G, quantum computing, and IoT (Internet of Things) systems. They can move forward on their goal of creating a state-controlled alternative cyberspace to the internet (Splinternet); and they can create a robust coalition to set new international standards for current and emerging technologies.
This is a challenging hurdle for the United States, since even the global hegemon cannot shift tectonic plates. That is why the United States’ regional partners (i.e., the quasi-alliance among the U.S., Australia, Japan, and India: The Quad) are critical to help contain Chinese ascendancy and help maintain a world based on rules, not rulers.
Santana F. King, a national security professional in Washington, D.C.. The views expressed in this column are his own.
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