_JPG.jpg)
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea’s (North Korea) continual pursuit to develop their nuclear weapons program and improve their nuclear arsenal is a threat to, both, the United States and its Southeast-Asian allies. North Korea’s endeavors are motivated by the Kim regime’s ambition to project regional power, maintain its national security, and force auspicious concessions from the international community. Although North Korea is a rogue state and neither an international nor regional power, it is still in the United States' national interest to pursue denuclearization.
Background:
In 2003, North Korea withdrew its participation in the Non-proliferation of Nuclear weapons Treaty (NPT). On October 9, 2006, North Korea publicly tested its first nuclear weapon. This test confirmed its status as a nuclear-armed state, although they are not officially recognized as a designated nuclear weapon state by the international community.
Currently, North Korea is estimated to possess an arsenal of 20 to 30 functional nuclear weapons; in addition, they have an adequate amount of nuclear fissile material for 30 to 60 additional weapons. The state, too, has a considerable stockpile of chemical and biological weapons. According to the Council on Foreign Relations, as of November 2017, North Korean inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), have the capability to strike all U.S. Asian and European allies, and continental United States—although, North Korea is currently unable to attach a nuclear warhead to these ICBMs.
In the 2018 U.S. National Defense Strategy, the United States regards North Korea as a ‘rogue state’. Within the past decade, the Kim Regime, who is the sovereign of North Korea, has antagonized both the United States and its Southeast Asian allies. Both verbal threats and missile test are intended to provoking its advisories has led to international reprisal and palpable animosity with the international community.
Since 1950, North Korea has suffered from harsh financial sanctions from international powers such as the United States, the European Union, Russia, Japan, and even its soul ally, China. Many regions of the North Korean state suffer from these heavy sanctions; the economy is antiquated, burdened, and incapable of growth because of the insurmountable sanctions, and the people hurt because of the lack of foreign aid and the state’s capacity to spend on its citizens. For decades, the Kim regime and North Korea have weaponized their nuclear program—even before they obtained the bomb—as an instrument for negotiating concessions from international powers, such as the United States.
Why Does North Korea desire a nuclear arsenal?
There are various reasons why the Kim regime of North Korea wants to maintain its nation’s status as a nuclear-armed state and why it seeks to improve its nuclear arsenal (e.g. types of bombs, missiles, etc.).
National Security and Power Projection:
After the Korean war, North Korea pursued nuclear weapons as a deterrent to fend off the threat of another invasion from the United States or its regional Asian allies. Without the protection of the former Soviet Union, The Kim regime has feared its overthrow and removal from power, which is the ambition of its enemies. So, it uses its only consequential instrument of power, its nuclear arsenal, to deter states it views as a threat to the national security of the North Korean state and, ultimately, the Kim Regime.
North Korean leader, Kim Jun-Un, has commented that he observed what happens to non-nuclear armed states that oppose the United States and the West. He observed how the United States invaded Iraq before they obtained nuclear weapons and helped overthrew Libya’s Gadhafi after he agreed to cancel his nuclear program. The regime believes their nuclear capabilities are paramount to their security and ability to maintain power.
Negotiations and Aid:
For decades North Korea has used its nuclear program--even before they achieved the bomb--as a negotiating tool to obtain favorable concessions from the international community. The North Korean strategy seems to be one of advancing while negotiating: they push the limits and advance in small steps while still negotiating.
North Korea leverages the possibility of canceling or limiting its nuclear program for aid and/or concessions, and in return, it gives little. It may agree to terms and gift significant gestures, like closing nuclear plants or allowing inspectors. Then, they again ruin the negotiations by conducting another provocative act and this cyclical negotiating dynamic restarts. All while, in the meantime, the state continues its ambitious nuclear pursuit.
This negotiating strategy has been to the state’s avail, to a degree. The Regime has gained foreign aid using these methods—aid which the country and regime severely depends on.
Challenges to United States National Interest and Security:
North Korea’s nuclear capabilities pose an array of threats to the United States and its allies. Before North Korea’s technological advancements in late 2017, the United States’ allies in the southeast Asian region (Japan and South Korea) were under immense nuclear threat by North Korea—because of their proximity to the rouge state. Now, with the confirmation of a North Korean ICMB, North Korea technicality has the ability to target the continental United States, too. The rogue state’s aggressive provocations towards the United States and its allies threaten, both, the United States’ national interest and national security.
National security:
North Korea's nuclear program is an overt threat to the security of the United States. First, even if North Korea is unable to reasonably strike the continental United States, it can still strike Japan or South Korea—two nations under U.S. military protection and its nuclear umbrella. Attacking either state would prompt the United States to retaliate and escalate the fraught situation, leading to conflict and war.
National Interest:
The southeast Asian region is one of the most populated regions on the planet. It facilitates high maritime trading traffic. Provocation in this area, especially against U.S. allies, poses a potential threat to U.S. economic/trade interest.
Also, since China is the only consequential ally of North Korea, the Kim regime and North Korea’s antagonizing and bombastic behavior adds to the existing tension between the two largest economies and most powerful nations (U.S. and China). Although China does not hold North Korea in high esteem and their relationship seems to be tenuous and fickle, a United States-North Korean conflict would add the existing animosity and further complicate U.S.-Chinese relations.
Sources:
Albert, E. (2019, December 10). What's the Status of North Korea's Nuclear Program? Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/north-koreas-military-capabilities
Vox. (2017, July 6). The growing North Korean nuclear threat, explained. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwbYpdGpx8U
Wikipedia contributors. (2020, February 29). North Korea and weapons of mass destruction. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 21:16, March 14, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=North_Korea_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction&oldid=943235221
Wikipedia contributors. (2019, December 13). Sanctions against North Korea. In Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Retrieved 21:17, March 14, 2020, from https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Sanctions_against_North_Korea&oldid=930587608
Photo Credits:
Photo four:
Comments