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Santana F. King
Jun 11, 20204 min read

Grand Strategy of the Iranian Nuclear Deal: Should the United States have Withdrew?


Over two years ago, President Donald Trump made the decision to withdraw the United States from the Iran Nuclear Deal and this action harmed the nations reputation and diplomatic credibility.


The Trump Administration should consider embracing the Iranian nuclear deal because the potential benefits outweigh the potential risk. When Obama Administration and the participants of the deal negotiated it, they were adhering to a collective grand strategy on curbing Iran’s nuclear program.


Background:

For background, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Agreement (JCPOA), also known as the Iranian Nuclear Deal, was negotiated, and signed by all participating nations in Vienna, Austria, on July 14, 2015. This is a multilateral agreement was signed by the United States, The United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, China, (the P5+1) and Iran


Within the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Agreement, in exchange sanction alleviation, the Iranian regime agreed to the nuclear restrictions and agreements set by the P5+1. These restrictions and agreements include eliminating 97 percent of their enriched Uranium holdings, only enriching Uranium to 3.67 percent, reducing their amount of uranium enriching centrifuges from 19,000 to 5000, allow international inspectors to regularly confirm their compliance to the deal


The JCPOA aimed to limit Iran’s capacity to create a nuclear weapon. By leveraging economic sanctions, the P5+1 nations were able to bring Iran to the negotiating table. All participating nations were able to not only compromise with Iran, but with on another—not all P5+1 nations have friendly relationships.


The Strategy:

The Obama Administration and the other signatories of the deal negotiated restrictions in the JCPOA that intended to eliminate Iran’s current nuclear program and to decrease its capacity to create the materials vital to the formation of a nuclear weapon (i.e. Uranium) for a period of 15 years. They were placing restrictions that had beneficial long-term effects, past the sunset of the deal.


For example, while complying with the JCPOA, Iran cannot enrich their Uranium more than the agreed 3.67 percent threshold: Uranium must be enriched to roughly 90 percent in order for it to be weaponized. For the P5+1 states, these agreement details are meant to not only prevent Iran form developing a nuclear weapon, but to also set them back and decrease their capacity to if they choose to go rouge—making nuclear development a far more exacting endeavor.


Trump's Withdraw:

The Trump Adminstration and member of the Republican Party have been robust critics of the JCPOA. They highlight what they point to as the deficiencies of the deal. They point out how the deal does not do enough to address Iranian aggression within the middle east, fomenting regional instability, or Iran’s capabilities to continue to produce threatening weapons like ballistic missiles—missiles that can be equipped with nuclear warheads if Iran chooses to withdraw and continue their nuclear weapons program.


In addition, Trump and other anti-JCPOA proponents also highlight the deal’s sunset deadline; they do not believe the deal should have to end with 15 years. They do not believe Iran should be permitted to continue their program once the deal ends, after they have already reaped the deal’s economic benefits. For these reasons, the Trump Administration felt justified to withdraw the United States.


The Withdraw's Impact:

The Trump Administration's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the JCPOA will have lasting effects on foreign policy and the geopolitical landscape. The JCPOA was a multilateral deal signed by the world’s most wealthy and power nations, nations that do not all have amicable relationships. By withdrawing the U.S. from a deal which it was the architect for, it will hinder the U.S.’s ability to make future deals. To the world, the trustworthiness of the U.S. has been damaged. Nations will be cautious before making a deal with the United States; if it easily pulled out of the JCPOA, why would it not do the same in the future with a different administrations. It indicates a lack of U.S. stability and continuity between administrations. This will torpedo future U.S. international endeavors regarding matters like trade and national security.


Also, there will be increased instability and aggression between Iran and adjacent nations within the middle east--like U.S. allies Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran, now faced with further economic difficulties, will become more aggressive towards the U.S. and its regional allies. This will result in funding more proxy wars and terrorist organizations. This will, both, increase Iran’s animosity within the region and towards the U.S., resulting in further instability and conflict.


Conclusion:

While President Donald Trump and his administration observer how the deal does not address actions he disagrees with, President Obama and his administration was focused on seizing the best opportunity they had to combat a salient problem. President Obama understood that holding off for the best deal was more harmful then compressing on a better deal. His strategy is to seize the time he gained by pausing the nuclear program to negotiate better concessions that ultimately end the program. President Trump is using the current deal as leverage to force concessions and achieve different aims related to Iran.


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